Phantom Yield Loss Corn Study

Phantom Yield Loss Study: 2023-2025

We’ve gathered three years of data in this intensive study to understand phantom yield loss and how it affects yields and economics for both commercial and on-farm drying.

In 2025, we studied four corn hybrids at earlier and later harvest intervals from 30% down to 15% grain moisture levels to determine if higher moisture grain at harvest offers higher yields, and if so, whether a “phantom” yield loss occurs at lower grain moistures.

Phantom Yield Loss and Why It Happens

What is phantom yield loss? It’s when some of your corn’s weight vanishes as it dries in the field. This weight loss is “invisible,” hence the name. 

Phantom yield loss might occur due to:

• Wind damage and/or stalk lodging
• Dry matter loss from respiration
• Ear rots leading to kernel damage
• Insect damage leading to kernel damage
• Increased butt shelling at corn head 
• Increased fines, cracked dry kernels

Phantom Yield Loss Study Results

In 2025, highest yield of 286.2 Bu/A occurred at the 21.4% moisture level. Higher harvest moistures resulted in yield losses of -2.8 to -4.3 Bu/A. As moisture declined, corn yield decreased by -6.3 Bu/A at 19.1%, -7.8 Bu/A at 16.8%, and -12.6 Bu/A at 14.7%. Over the three years this study has been in place, 2025 is the first year the highest moisture corn has not offered highest corn yield.

Multi-year data from 2023-2025 showed that the highest harvest moisture of corn has produced highest yields. As corn dried in the field down to 24%, yield fell -3.3 Bu/A, at 20% yield fell -5.7 Bu.A. At 18% yield fell -10.3 Bu/A, and finally, 15% suffering the largest yield losses at -15.2 Bu/A.

The biggest question surrounding this study is whether yield loss is coming from “phantom” yield loss or is it just physical field harvest loss? Based upon field loss measurements, 80%-90% or more of the losses are associated with improper combine settings, header loss, down corn, mold or other factors.

On-Farm vs Commercial Drying

So is the answer to simply harvest wet corn? Not necessarily, because as we know, drying that corn comes at a cost. 

That’s why we evaluated the same corn moisture levels to determine the most economical moisture level, considering the cost of both commercial and on-farm drying methods.

Commercial Drying

First, we calculated the cost of commercial drying at our local grain terminal. Commercial shrink was calculated at 1.4% at 14% grain moisture. 

This table shows the average net return for all harvest moistures in a commercial grain elevator delivery at harvest. The lowest moisture level, 15%, saw the highest overall net return for all 4 corn hybrids. All other moisture levels saw economic deficits, with 28% moisture levels resulting in the highest loss of -$66.66/A averaging across three years.

On-Farm Drying

Next, we calculated the costs of on-farm drying. Using our GSI Q214 continuous flow dryer and propane gas.

The results are completely inverted compared to commercial drying. The highest moisture level corn, 28%, saw the highest overall net return for all 4 corn hybrids. As corn dried in the field, net losses increased, with 18% moisture corn resulting in a loss of -$3.53/A averaged over three years.

The More Economical Method: On-Farm Drying

Comparing commercial vs on-farm drying, on-farm drying proved more economical overall.

This table reveals the economic advantage of on-farm drying over commercial drying and shrink charges. On-farm drying resulted in savings of up to $55/A on average over three years compared to commercial costs, reducing drying expenses by nearly 40% annually.

That’s why for us here at the PTI farm, based on this three-year data, a 28% harvest moisture level is the sweet spot for the most economical drying using our on-farm system.

Additional Costs to Consider

While it’s hard to quantify them with a dollar amount, there are a few other costs to consider in this study and your own evaluations:

• Hours of operation: On-farm drying allows for 24/7 “open hours” for drying and storage, compared to commercial facilities that close at night. In this study, on-farm drying saw higher harvest efficiency as we were able to dry and store through the night. 
• Patronage dividends: Patronage dividends are profit distributions paid by a co-operative to growers based on how much they use the co-op’s services, and should be factored into the total costs if applicable.

In-Depth Study Videos

Study Details 

Study data collected 2023-2025 at the PTI Farm in Pontiac, IL.